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Education

University of California, San Diego

Ph.D., Political Science, 2015
M.A., Political Science, 2011

Harvard Kennedy School

M.P.P., International Security Policy, 2003

Yale University

B.A., Political Science, 2001

Book

Signing Away the Bomb: The Surprising Success of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. 2022. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

“Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Nuclear Weapons.” 2025. In Philipp Hacker, ed., Oxford Intersections: AI and Society. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. With Ryan A. Musto.

“The Changing Face of Nuclear Proliferation.” 2024. International Studies Quarterly 68(2).

“State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions: Evidence from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” 2022. Journal of Global Security Studies 7(1).

“The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations.” 2021. International Studies Quarterly 65(2): 306–319. With Erik Gartzke.

“The Negotiation Calculus: Why Parties to Civil Conflict Refuse to Talk.” 2016. International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 38–46.

“The Canary in the Nuclear Submarine: Assessing the Nonproliferation Risk of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Loophole.” 2015. Nonproliferation Review 22(2): 185–202.

Reprinted in Henry Sokolski, ed. 2017. Nuclear Rules, Not Just Rights: The NPT Reexamined. Arlington, VA: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

“Talking Peace, Making Weapons: IAEA Technical Cooperation and Nuclear Proliferation.” 2014. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(3): 402–428. With Robert L. Brown.

Reprinted in Neil Narang, Erik Gartzke, and Matthew Kroenig, eds. 2016. Nonproliferation Policy and Nuclear Posture: Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. New York: Routledge.

“The Determinants of Nuclear Force Structure.” 2014. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(3): 481–508. With Erik Gartzke and Rupal N. Mehta.

Reprinted in Neil Narang, Erik Gartzke, and Matthew Kroenig, eds. 2016. Nonproliferation Policy and Nuclear Posture: Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. New York: Routledge.

Select Working Papers

“Geolocated nuclear weapons facilities: a new dataset,” with John Gantner and Anastasia Stoltz (current student). In preparation.

“There will be no NPT for AI.” In preparation.

“Is the Future of Diplomacy Virtual?” with Marcus Holmes.

ISA Annual Conference, Chicago, March 2025
APSA Annual Meeting, Vancouver, Sept. 2025 (scheduled)

“Assessing Proliferation Risk.”

APSA Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Sept. 2024
ISSS-IS Conference, Denver, Oct. 2019

“Who Shall I Say Is Calling? Signal Sender Uncertainty in International Diplomacy,” with Marcus Holmes.

APSA Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, Sept. 2023 (scheduled)
MPSA Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2023

“Distributed Ledger Technology and Nuclear Safeguards,” with Tara McLaughlin (current student) and Troy Wiipongwii (former student).

Research in Progress Seminar, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Nov. 2020

“Deterrence and the Structure of Nuclear Forces,” with Erik Gartzke and Rupal N. Mehta.

APSA Annual Meeting, Sept. 2020 (presented virtually by coauthor)

“The Past and Future of Nuclear Proliferation.”

      Nuclear Studies Research Initiative Conference, Hamburg, Dec. 2019

“Changing Pathways to a Bomb.”

      APSA Annual Meeting, Washington DC, Aug. 2019

“Nuclear Latency and the Nonproliferation Regime.”

APSA Annual Meeting, Boston, Aug. 2018
Hendricks Symposium on Nuclear Latency, Lincoln, March 2017

“The Determinants of Multilateral Nuclear Assistance,” with Robert L. Brown

ISA Annual Convention, Baltimore, February 2017
MPSA Annual Conference, Chicago, April 2013

“Predicting Nuclear Proliferation,” with Erik Gartzke.

APSA Annual Meeting, San Francisco, Sept. 2015

“Testing the Role of Uncertainty in Conflict,” with Erik Gartzke.

ISA Annual Convention, New Orleans, Feb. 2015
Workshop on the Empirical Implications of the Bargaining Model of War, Peace Science Society Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Oct. 2014
APSA Annual Meeting, Chicago, Sept. 2013

“In Search of Nuclear Deterrence,” with Erik Gartzke and Rupal N. Mehta.

ISA Annual Convention, Toronto, March 2014

“The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime Complex: A New Dataset,” with Shannon Carcelli, Erik Gartzke, and Rebecca Gibbons.

ISA Annual Convention, Toronto, March 2014

Select Invited Talks

“New Frontiers in Nuclear Security: Technology, Treaties, and Challenges Ahead.”

University of Kentucky, Lexington, Dec. 2024

“International Diplomacy Through the Headset: Trust-Building with Technology-Mediated Interaction,” with Marcus Holmes.

William & Mary Global Research Institute’s Research in Progress Seminar, Williamsburg, Sept. 2024

“Nuclear Intelligence”

Institute of Nuclear Materials Management Chapter, Virginia Commonwealth University, Feb. 2021 (presented virtually)

“The Changing Face of Nuclear Proliferation.”

      Lansing Lee/Bankard Seminar, University of Virginia, Nov. 2018

“The End of the Nuclear Weapons Program”

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Workshop, Washington DC, May 2017
Workshop on Nuclear Latency and Hedging, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, May 2017
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Workshop, Washington DC, Nov. 2016

“The Credibility of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.”

Reves Global Lecture, William & Mary, Nov. 2015
Nuclear Science and Security Consortium, University of California, Berkeley, Aug. 2013
Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Winter Conference, Washington DC, March 2013
Stanton Nuclear Security Seminar, Washington DC, Oct. 2012

“Measuring Uncertainty across Domains.”

Cross-Domain Deterrence Conference, University of California, San Diego, Nov. 2014

“State Compliance and the Track Record of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.”

New Faces Conference, Triangle Institute for Security Studies, Sept. 2014

“Nuclear Force Structure and International Conflict.”

Colgate University, March 2014

“The Drivers of Nuclear Proliferation.”

MORS Seminar, Analytic Dynamics of Deterrence and Non Proliferation, Non-Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation Working Group, Washington, DC, March 2012

“Assessing Nuclear Proliferation Risk.”

Ad Hoc Committee on Improving the Assessment of Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, Jan. 2012

“Talking Peace, Making Weapons: IAEA Technical Cooperation and Nuclear Proliferation.”

IAEA Governance and Reform, Washington DC, Feb. 2012
Policy Implications of New Research on Nuclear Proliferation, Washington DC, Dec. 2011

Courses Offered

Government 100, Predicting the Future (2017, 2021–2022, 2024–2025)

Government 391/History 311, The United States and the Nuclear Arms Race (2024)

Government 329, International Security (2015–2017, 2019–2023)

Government 391, The Politics of Nuclear Weapons (2018, 2020, 2022)

Public Policy 610, Policy Research Seminar (2017)

Government 204, Introduction to International Politics (2016)

Research Lab

Director, NukeLab at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, 2019–

Co-Director, Troy A. Cullen Emerging Technology Fellows Program, 2022–

Policy Experience

Research Consultant, Public Policy Associates, Inc., Lansing, MI, 2008 – 2012

Consulted on quantitative and qualitative research instruments, data analysis, and reports for government and nonprofit clients and stakeholders; designed and implemented large-scale social network studies of participants in regional economic development initiatives

Analyst, United States Government, Washington, DC, 2002 – 2009

In several US government positions, conducted research and analysis related to nuclear proliferation; produced written assessments and provided briefings on analytic conclusions to senior policymakers and Congress; served as US State Department's China desk officer for nonproliferation, drafting briefing materials and tracking developments in Chinese nuclear and missile programs; represented the United States at international talks on Middle East regional stability

Environmental Strategy Research Associate, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cambridge, MA, 2000 – 2001

Researched and wrote reports for energy industry clients on global environmental issues, including political assessments of international environmental negotiations and quantitative analyses of emissions trading markets

Grants and Awards

Troy A. Cullen Emerging Technology Fellows Program, Charles Center Research Incubator Extension Grant, William & Mary, with Ryan Musto, 2024–2025

International Diplomacy Through the Headset: A Comparative Study in Trust-Building with Technology-Mediated Interaction, Provost’s Interdisciplinary Research Innovation Fund, William & Mary, with Marcus Holmes, Julia Gaffield, and Michael Gaynes, 2024–2026

The Diplomacy Project, Funding to support Postdoctoral Fellow, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, with Marcus Holmes, 2024–2026

Nuclear Security Agreements Led by Non-Weapons States: New Models for Global Progress, Carnegie Corporation of New York, with Ryan Musto, 2023–2025

Regional Nuclear Security Agreements: Revisiting Historical Models for Nuclear Progress, Provost’s Interdisciplinary Research Innovation Fund, William & Mary, with Ryan Musto and Hiroshi Kitamura, 2023–2025

The United States and the Nuclear Arms Race: Past & Present, Course Development Grant, Stanton Foundation, with Ryan Musto, 2023–2024

Reves Faculty Fellowship, William & Mary, 2023–2024

NukeLab Emerging Technology Fellows Program, Charles Center Research Incubator Grant, William & Mary, with Ryan Musto, 2022–2024

The Past and Future of Nuclear Proliferation, Nuclear Security Grant, Stanton Foundation, 2021–2023

The Past and Future of Nuclear Proliferation, Strategy and Policy Fellowship, Smith Richardson Foundation, 2019–2022

Enhancing Nuclear Safeguards with Blockchain, Blockchain Seed Grant, W&M Blockchain Lab, 2020–2021

Assessing Proliferation Risk: Using Advanced Data Analytics to Evaluate Emerging Nuclear Threats, Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency and U.S. Air Force Academy, 2019–2021

Politics of Nuclear Weapons, Course Development Grant, Stanton Foundation, 2017

Faculty Summer Research Grant, William & Mary, 2016 and 2017

The Changing Face of Nuclear Proliferation, Summer Fellowship, Bridging the Gap Project, 2016

Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy and Analytical Aid, Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency and Naval Postgraduate School, with Erik Gartzke, 2015

International Nuclear Security Dissertation Fellowship, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California, 2013 – 2014

Earl Warren Graduate Fellowship, University of California, San Diego, 2009 – 2014

Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship, RAND Corporation, 2012 – 2013

International Nuclear Security Dissertation Fellowship, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California, 2012 – 2013

TA Excellence Award, University of California, San Diego, 2010 – 2011

Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Training Program Grant, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, 2010

Multiple awards and Certificate of Recognition for outstanding government service and contributions to US foreign policy, 2008

Six Exceptional Performance Awards and two Quality Step Increases in recognition of outstanding performance as a US government analyst, 2003 – 2007

Carolyn Cady Hewey Scholarship, Harvard University, 2001 – 2003

Pi Sigma Alpha honors society, Yale University, 2001 

Invited Workshops

Gauging the Durability of Proliferation Constraints: Testing Our Assumptions, Center for a New American Security, 2018

Strategic Thinking in Pakistan, Stimson Center, 2018

Emerging Technology, Shifting Power Balances, and Nuclear Stability, Atlantic Council, 2018

Evolution or Revolution? The Impact of Additive Manufacturing on Nuclear Proliferation, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2016

Cyber and National Security Academic-Practitioner Workshop, George Washington University, Washington DC, 2014

Workshop on Network Analysis and the Study of International Security, George Washington University, Washington DC, 2013

Professional Training

Nuclear Summer School, Nuclear Science and Security Consortium, University of California, Berkeley, 2013

Human subjects training, 2012

Workshops on social network analysis, Political Networks Conference, 2011 – 2012 

Public Policy and Nuclear Threats training program, 2010

New Era Foreign Policy Conference, 2010

Technical training on the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear weapons technologies, 2003 – 2008

Department and University Service

St. Andrews Society Scholarship Review Committee, 2024–

Curriculum Committee (Government), 2022–

International Relations Program Advisor, St. Andrews-William & Mary Joint Degree Programme, 2020–

Global Research Institute Director’s Advisory Group, William & Mary, 2020–

Arts & Sciences St. Andrews Programme Committee, William & Mary, 2020–

Middle East Politics Search Committee (Chair, Government Dept.), 2024–2025

Executive Committee (International Relations Program), 2021–2025

Faculty Compensation Board, William & Mary, 2024–2025

Honors and Undergraduate Research Committee (Government Dept.), 2018–2022

Teaching Faculty Search Committee (Government Dept./International Relations Program), 2021

Financial Conflict of Interest Committee, William & Mary, 2017–2018

Middle East Politics Search Committee (Government Dept.), 2017–2018

Interim Member, International Advisory Committee, William & Mary, 2017

Scholarship Committee (Government Dept.), 2016–2018

Honors Committee (Government Dept.), 2015–2016

Service to the Profession

Panel discussant

APSA Annual Meeting, 2015; 2017; 2021–2025
MPSA Annual Conference, 2016; 2023
ISA Annual Convention, 2016; 2019
ISSS-IS Conference, 2019

Panel chair

APSA Annual Meeting, 2022–2025
MPSA Annual Conference, 2016; 2023
ISA Annual Convention, 2019

Co-organizer

Workshop on the Empirical Implications of the Bargaining Model of War, Peace Science Society Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Oct. 2014

Panel organizer

Bargaining and War: New Theoretical and Empirical Approaches, APSA Annual Meeting, Chicago, Sept. 2013
The Effect of International Institutions on State Behavior, APSA Annual Meeting, Chicago, Sept. 2013

Referee

American Journal of Political Science; Asian Security; Cambridge University Press; Canadian Journal of Political Science; Conflict Management and Peace Science; Czech Science Foundation; Defense and Peace Economics; European Journal of International Relations; Foreign Policy Analysis; Global Policy; Hague Journal of Diplomacy; International Interactions; International Relations of the Asia-Pacific; International Politics; International Security; International Studies Quarterly; International Studies Review; Journal of Cold War Studies; Journal of Conflict Resolution; Journal of Global Security Studies; Journal of Peace Research; Nonproliferation Review; Nuclear Engineering and Technology; Nuclear Technology; Oxford University Press; Palgrave MacMillan; Peace Review; Perspectives on Politics; Political Research Quarterly; Research and Politics; Riksbankens Jubileumsfond; Rowman and Littlefield; Routledge; Security Studies; Stanford University Press

Memberships

American Political Science Association

International Studies Association

Midwest Political Science Association

Peace Science Society (International)

International Institute for Strategic Studies